Risky Business

What's the most dangerous thing you've ever done? Friends of mine have snapped tendons, blown out knees, and broken various bones while pursuing their individual passions. And while I admit to my share of risky behavior, I can’t claim my friends’ level of glory; I've been fortunate to have only suffered a broken wrist when I was 7 and a cut forehead that required ten or so stitches when I was about 12.

Things that are dangerous are usually also intensely thrilling… and that’s probably the basis of their appeal. The rush of adrenaline that comes from an activity that most of your friends would call insane can be addictive. There’s also something about facing — or ignoring — your fears that many folks find exhilarating… and liberating.

Through much of 2008, my business has been all about living with people’s fears. Specifically, the fears that Buyers have had this year concerning their perception of the real estate market in the Triangle. Very early in the spring market, I called it right. When folks would ask “how’s business” my response was that it felt as though Buyers were nervous… fearful… and seemed to be holding back. And that was long before the economy started its current freefall.

So what’s next? An adjustment. A reset. A recovery.

Here in the Triangle, we are currently seeing a drop in the number of homes on the market. There were 18,600 homes listed in TMLS at one point in September. The numbers fell in October, November, and December. As I write this, there are 17,619 listings currently on the market in the Triangle. This drop in inventory is a good thing. One very smart person I know anticipates that inventory will get low enough again in the next year or so that we could even be looking at a housing shortage because many builders are no longer building. When this happens, the value of resale homes will begin to increase again as demand outpaces supply.

But in my view, it’s only going to begin when people get over their fear. At some point, the log-jam that is paralyzing consumer spending has to break. Rates are low. Inventory is available. Millions and millions and millions are waiting to be lent. Bargains are waiting to be had. But Buyers are still nervous.

Maybe the tide will begin to turn in a few weeks when a new base of power takes the helm in our nation’s Capitol. Our new Commander-In-Chief became just that by convincing folks to hope. So… okay, Sir. That’s mine. Get to work on it… and God be with you.
My hope for you is that your New Year is happy and prosperous. And my promise to you is that we’ll ride this thing out… together.

Robert Flinn, REALTOR®
919-698-2040 (Direct Line)
919-402-1242 (Office)
rflinn@fmrealty.com (email)