Does Population Growth Equal Housing Growth?

The headlines were abuzz a week or so ago, talking for once about a positive story: North Carolina's population continues to grow. More than 180,000 people moved to the Tarheel State in the year that ended July 1, 2008. Since last summer, our state grew at a rate of 2 percent -- the fourth-highest in the nation and more than double the national growth rate.

Why is this good news? Because population growth mandates that people have to live somewhere. Statistically speaking, nearly 70% of people who live in our area own the homes they live in. So, of those 180,000 folks moving here, 126,000 of them will be looking for a home to buy in the near future.

Real Estate colleagues of mine in other parts of the country would do just about anything to be able to claim statistics like that.

Here in the Triangle, we are seeing a drop in the number of homes on the market. There were 18,600 homes listed in TMLS at one point in September. And the numbers fell in October, November, and December. At this writing, more than 17,600 listings are currently on the market in the Triangle. But this drop in inventory is a good thing. One very smart person I know anticipates that inventory might get low enough again in the next year or so that we could even be looking at a housing shortage because many builders are no longer building. When this happens, the value of resale homes will begin to increase again as demand outpaces supply.

With the firestorm of negative news concerning the economy, I thought you'd appreciate a glimmer of hope.

I hope everyone has a very happy and prosperous New Year!

Robert Flinn, REALTOR®
919-698-2040 (Direct)
919-402-1242 (Office)
rflinn@fmrealty.com (email)